Latest polls point to a tie in Ecuador´s presidential race

Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso are practically tied at 50% in their expected votes to reach the Ecuadorian presidential seat. The right-wing and conservative candidate Lasso, who already faced Lenín Moreno in 2016 and was about to be left out of this second round in a close recount, has cut distances against the leftist and correista Arauz, who clearly won the first round. Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso are practically tied at 50% in their expected votes to reach the Ecuadorian presidential seat. The right-wing candidate, who was about to be left out of this second round in a tight recount, has cut distances against the leftist Arauz, who clearly won the first round, the young (35-year-old) economist who served as minister in the last phase Rafael Correa's government will return power to the left after four years of uneasy estrangement. The shadow of the former president inevitably hovers over the election. He has overturned his entire platform, of which a Twitter account with more than 3.4 million followers is just a spearhead, in supporting Arauz.

In an attempt to separate the wheat from the chaff, the autonomous Electoral Calculation project compiles, filters and scores each of the available surveys. An Ecuadorian engineer, economist and physicist start from current criteria, technique used, territorial coverage, and past successes. On this basis, they build a forecasting model based on simulations that takes into account the internal trend approximated by the different measurements of each survey house. At the close of the last survey presented, the model placed the most probable simulation at: Arauz 52.4%; Lasso 47.6%; a point very similar to the average of the surveys presented here. But the most interesting aspect of this type of model is its ability to offer a map in uncertainty; in this case, they assign a probability to each approximate margin of victory for each candidate. The result: in two out of three worlds, Arauz wins. Almost always, yes, with greater chances of a margin of less than 5 points, in 1 of every 5 simulations, but in one of every three, the victory goes to Guillermo Lasso.