Three factors may explain the slowdown in economic growth in 2021

Ecuador's economic recovery will be one of the slowest economies in Latin America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says this in its new report "World Economic Outlook."

According to their forecasts, the country will grow 2.5% by 2021, while the Latin American average will be 4.6%. Ecuador's figures are not as optimistic as those published in December last year, when the agency calculated growth of 4.8% this year. For the economic analyst Fausto Ortiz, the adjustment was due to the fact that the economy did not significantly reduce gross domestic product (GDP) as predicted by the International Monetary Fund. "The numbers are not broken. The sharp decline in 2020 has translated into a strong rebound in 2021." Initially, it had forecast a 9.5% drop, but now it says it will close at 7.5%, very close to the 7.8% announced by the Central Bank this month. According to Ortiz, before the arrival of covid-19, Latin America would take two years to get out of the crisis before returning to the rhythm of 2019. "On the other hand, Ecuador will take more than two years, about four years.

If you look at it from Nearby, what the International Monetary Fund says is that by 2022, we can only recover from the decline in GDP in 2020. " It is observed that by 2022, GDP may slightly increase by 1.3%. The agency also warned in its report that the long-term outlook "remains dependent on the trajectory of the pandemic." With the exception of Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico, Ecuador is "a country that has not yet received enough vaccines to cover its population." This quarter, especially the value added tax (VAT), which reflects the evolution of sales. The graph shows that production activities have not yet resumed. The government is trying to increase social spending to inject liquidity into the economy with funds from multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank. These organizations provide financing for the economic plans of the country, but their continuity will depend on the following government of a mandate.